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The Next Economic Cycle

By Steve Guglielmo

The Second Quarter 2014 issue of The MHEDA Journal is being printed and shipped as we speak. This issue is our annual Convention issue and features articles from Convention speakers designed to help you unleash your “Superhero Leadership.”

One of those articles comes from the president of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR), Alan Beaulieu, and discusses how MHEDA members can “Get Aggressive and Start Thinking Big.” Those who have attended Convention before are familiar with Alan. His insightful and interesting presentations have made him a favorite at Convention and his startling accuracy in forecasting the Great Recession two years before the crash have made his columns a can’t-miss for many MHEDA members. Here is Alan speaking at last year’s Convention about what MHEDA members can expect going forward and how they can position themselves best to capitalize on the good times and shiled against the bad.

As you can see, there is a lot of information to digest there. One thing that he alluded to in that presentation (and in his upcoming column in the 2nd Quarter magazine) is that 2014 will experience a minor dip in the economy before roaring back in 2015.

In the First Quarter issue of the magazine, we surveyed hundreds of MHEDA dealers and suppliers about their expectations for the industry this year. And almost universally, the expectation was for growth, and in many cases, record growth.

How are these companies forecasting record growth in the midst of an economic slump? Well Beaulieu offers multiple suggestions for companies to weather the downturn and then pounce on the upswing.

“One way to manage cash flow is to take advantage of the optimism and opportunties in the first half of 2014,” Beaulieu says in the 2nd Quarter issue. “You may want to consider purposefully thinning your margins a bit in the first half of the year in order to ensure you have the orders and backlog to carry you well into 2015. You will stay profitable and concurrently not have to dramatically thin your margins in a scramble to bring in work later in the year.”

The overall message of Beaulieu’s article and presentation at this year’s Convention (Get Aggressive and Start Thinking Big – Monday, May 5 from 1:15 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. at the MHEDA Convention in Orlando, Florida) is that with an expanding economy over the next four years, companies should do what they can do to grow their business now. That could be adding personnel, more space, more equipment or a number of other things that will provide room to grow.

Be on the lookout for the 2nd Quarter Issue of The MHEDA Journal. For more information about the MHEDA Convention, click here.